What we do know is that we don't know

During my recent trip to Chile and Argentina traveling by myself, I thought a lot about the unpredictability of life. Ten years ago today I was in my first semester of my second year of law school in Florida studying for finals. Lots of events have happened between then and now both good and bad that have impacted where I am today. 

 

My natural tendency is to react to events in terms of short-term implications, because long-term implications are impossible to determine. One of the decisions I made in 2006 after finishing law school was to move to Denver to attend the University of Denver and its Master's in Real Estate program. The short-term implication of that decision was to forego taking the Florida bar exam and leaving the state of Florida where job opportunities had the highest probability of coming to fruition based on the alumni network of the law school. I will never know the opportunity cost of leaving. There are a myriad of possible outcomes if I had stayed. At the end of the day, I did a cost-benefit analysis and then lived with my choice.

The program I matriculated into was highly beneficial from an educational standpoint, but there were no guarantees what job opportunities would await me upon graduation. Education these days is very expensive. It was somewhat nerve wracking not knowing if my risk and investment would lead to bigger and better things.

 

After finishing 50% of my classes at the University of Denver, I applied, interviewed, and received an offer to work for a renewable energy company in the bay area. The salary was a little low, but I was confident that it was a fast growing industry that would allow for advancement. The offer and acceptance allowed me to finish another quarter of the program, which would allow me to finish my final classes from a distance. I was with that company for 17 months or so before I moved on to my current company. 

 

Most of the bigger events in my life like switching jobs, choosing an educational track, going through periods of physical injuries and then good health, moving away or deciding to stay and other events are complete unknowns about long-term impact on our futures.

I found the following story on a message board online, which I think illustrates this theme that life events aren't always the catalyst for a downward or upward trajectory that we predict them to be. 

 

Once upon a time In 14th Century China, during the rule of the Ming Dynasty, there lived an old Farmer. The farmer was a poor man. The farmer had a son, and he owned a horse. That was all. His hut was owned by the Lord of the province, and the farmer used his Horse and his son to work the land. The farmer labored for the lord of the land, and in return was provided with food and a home.

One day after a hard day’s labor, the farmer's son forgot to close the corral and the farmer’s only horse broke out and ran away.

The villagers, upon hearing of the horse running away, came to the farmer's house to view the corral. As they stood there, the villagers said,

"We are so sorry for you. This is such bad luck!”

 

The farmer replied, "Well I don’t know if it’s bad. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. I just don’t know."

The villagers thought this was odd, but left the farmer to it, and returned to their tasks. About a week later, the horse returned, bringing with it a whole herd of wild horses, which the farmer and his son quickly corralled.

 

The Villagers, upon hearing of the corralling of the horses, came to see for themselves. As they stood there looking at the corral filled with horses, the Villagers said,

"We are so pleased for you. This is such good luck!”

The farmer replied, "Well I don’t know if it’s good. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. I just don’t know."

The villagers thought this was odd, but again left the farmer to it, and returned to their tasks. A couple of weeks later, the farmer's son's legs were badly broken when he was thrown from one of the wild horses he was trying to break.

The villagers, upon all hearing of the incident, came to see the son. As they stood there, the villagers said,

"We are so sorry for you. This is such bad luck!”

The farmer replied, "Well I don’t know if it’s bad. Maybe it is. Maybe it isn’t. I just don’t know."

The villagers thought this was odd, but again left the farmer to it, and returned to their tasks.

At that same time in China, a war broke out between two rival Lords. In need of more soldiers, the Lord of the land rode down into the valley to conscript all the young men to go off and fight in the war, a war which none of them would survive. When the Lord came to take the farmer's son, he found the young man with 2 broken legs. Knowing there was no way the son could fight, the Lord of the land left him there.

It was at this moment that the little old farmer realized, that the greatest thing he could EVER know, was that…

HE DIDN’T KNOW…

 

I like this story a lot. It illustrates the fact that uncertainty is a part of our future going forward. We have to take the good with the bad and understand that not everything is in our control. It also illustrates the point that 3rd party onlookers actually know even less about the implications of events in our lives and their input should, therefore, not be valued very highly. Even if we don't know what comes next, we can still take calculated risks and then live with the long-term outcome. Sometimes, the outcome will be good and sometimes not as good. That's life.